Francois Chollet 提出,若 AI 真有可能在数年或数十年内导致人类灭绝,那么唯一理性的安全监管立场应是严格的、自上而下的政府介入与普遍批准的国际条约,类似核能与核不扩散的做法。他认为只有两种自洽选项:要么灭绝风险真实存在并采取最强硬监管,要么风险不真实、实际风险温和,因而只需温和的安全措施与自我认证。不能一边说这可能在你有生之年终结人类,一边完全凭感觉行事。
If there really is a high chance of AI leading to the extinction of humanity within years/decades, then the only rational stance towards safety monitoring and research pacing should be stringent, top-down government involvement and universally ratified international treaties. Similar to what we have been doing for a long time with nuclear energy and nuclear weapons non-proliferation.
If that's not what we're doing, then we must infer that the risk isn't being seriously considered by anyone involved.
There are only two options that make sense here:
1. The near-term species extinction risk is real and we are taking it seriously, with maximally heavy-handed regulation.
2. The extinction risk isn't real, actual risks are mild, so we're only pursuing mild safety measures and self-certification.
But you cannot say "yes this is likely to end humanity in your lifetime, and we're going to completely wing it." That is simply not rational.
来源:@fchollet · x.com