Hugging Face 联创 Thomas Wolf 认为,智能价格持续下降可能是宇宙历史尺度上最深刻的事件之一。他引用 Epoch AI 数据指出,自 2023 年以来同等性能水平的 AI 成本每季度下降约 47%,比 DNA 测序快 4 倍、比算力快 6 倍、比锂电池快 18 倍。他将生命、大脑与 AI 模型视为熵流中的结构,把更多能量梯度导向知识构建。
on the scale of cosmic history, the declining price of intelligence might be one of the most profound things happening
both ends of the universe’s timeline are empty of knowledge:
- the big bang: low entropy, no complex structure
- heat death: maximum entropy, no usable energy gradients
everything we build happens on the slope between them
but the universe is generally a poor converter of its free energy into anything constructive. most of its free energy just radiates away as heat or collapses into black holes
life, brains and now AI models are structures that sit in the entropy flow and divert a portion of it through constructive paths, building and maintaining low-entropy structures (machines, cells, crystals, memories)
increasingly cheaper intelligence diverts increasingly more of that gradient flow through knowledge-building structures, complex, self-maintaining, predictive structures, filling the window in which understanding exists
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源:@Thom_Wolf · x.com