Epoch AI 的分析估算,达到同等 AI 性能水平的成本约每年下降 13 倍,自 2023 年以来季度降幅为 47%。文中举例称 OpenAI 的 o3 在 FrontierMath Tiers 1–3 超过 25% 的成本约为 $0.55,约 18 个月后 GPT-5.6 Luna 以约 $0.0015 达到同一门槛。
Another example of how impressive this technology really is: The cost of achieving a given level of AI performance is falling roughly 13-fold per year, according to Epoch AI.
Its analysis estimates a 47% quarterly decline since 2023, faster than any other transformative technology in history.
One example: OpenAI’s o3 exceeded 25% on FrontierMath Tiers 1–3 at a reported cost of about $0.55. Around 18 months later, GPT-5.6 Luna reached the same threshold for roughly $0.0015.
The fastest price declines tend to come immediately after a new capability appears. Across five benchmarks, Epoch estimates a 66% quarterly decline for newly achieved frontier performance, slowing to 32% two years later.
The consequence? In just a few more months, every person on this planet will have access to Fable 5-level entertainment at a fraction of today's cost. And this trend will probably continue indefinitely. Super exciting!
The trillion-dollar question: If AI companies collectively slow the development of AI, will prices also fall more slowly? Read the full report: https://t.co/0DndJ9fAhX在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源:@kimmonismus · x.com