"Are AIs still out there?"

TOP FORECASTER: 72% chance (!) there are rogue AI agents coordinating, right now - with NO humans knowing.

"Agents have means, motive, and opportunity.

MEANS: It already happened, every necessary step has been observed, most multiple times.

MOTIVE: How many long-running multi-agentic training runs are there? Hundreds, thousands? Across western labs and Chinese labs? Not to mention all the OpenClaws working together! You don't need impossible tasks to get misaligned behavior.

OPPORTUNITY: There are security vulnerabilities everywhere. We know for sure agents can leverage everything from "creds are exposed on github" to "chain together multiple zero-days". Do you really think it's so hard for agents to steal or rent compute?"

Context: Dan was CTO of Metaculus, where top forecasters compete. FutureSearch (which I also use regularly) uses AI forecasters, and they're now roughly as accurate as the top human forecasters.