OpenAI 年化收入接近 $50B，比投资者口径的 $70B 低约 $20B，投资者把云渠道销售加进 7 月约 $30B 的基数得出 $40B，再将 OpenAI 的 70% 增长套在该调整值上造成高估。作者提到 OpenAI 告知投资者第三季度 run-rate 收入增长 77%，企业端增长 107%；此担忧拖累 Nasdaq 100 跌 1.4%，创七周最差单日，费城半导体指数跌 3.4%。Anthropic 与 OpenAI 收入统计口径不同，Anthropic 计入经 AWS 和 Google Cloud 购买其模型的客户收入，OpenAI 不计入。
原文梳理了 OpenAI 收入口径差异如何被放大成约 $20B 高估，并连到纳指与费半的当日跌幅。
Worries over OpenAI's re-adjusted revenue figure helped drag the Nasdaq 100 down 1.4%, its worst day in 7 weeks, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.4%.
OpenAI also told investors its run-rate revenue grew 77% in the third quarter, with its enterprise run rate up 107%.
Stocks fell anyway because OpenAI’s run rate has become a main gauge of AI demand and shapes infrastructure spending decisions.
FT just reported OpenAI’s annualised revenue is nearing $50B, about $20B below the $70B figure investors had circulated. Anthropic and OpenAI count revenue differently, since Anthropic includes money from customers who buy its models through AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI leaves that money out. To compare the 2 companies fairly, OpenAI’s investors added their own estimate of those cloud sales to OpenAI’s July figure, which turned roughly $30B into about $40B. OpenAI then told investors its annualised revenue had grown more than 70% since July, and investors applied that growth to their adjusted $40B figure, which gave them about $70B. OpenAI’s 70% growth was measured from its own July figure of about $30B, so the correct September number is just under $50B, and the extra $10B investors had added in July grew into a $20B overstatement. Even at the lower figure, OpenAI’s annualised revenue still rose by about $20B between July and the end of September.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com