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@SemiAnalysis_· @SemiAnalysis_ · X·· 2026-08-27AI 评分47
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SemiAnalysis 指出 ABF 载板 2026 年产能已全部订满,六大供应商交期普遍达 12 至 14 个月。随着 ASIC/GPU 平台迭代,载板尺寸增至 9,000–14,000 mm²、层数增至 20–24L,单件占用产线时间更长。客户已开始寻求 2029 年之后的产能承诺,部分二线供应商更以竞标方式拍卖可用产能。

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Substrates have no slack: 2026 is fully booked, and total lead times run 12 to 14 months across all six suppliers. Larger body sizes (up to 9,000–14,000 mm²) and higher layer counts (up to 20–24L) consume more line time per unit as each new ASIC/GPU platform generation evolves. Under the bottleneck shift, we reiterate our bullish view on ABF substrates supply chain for stronger pricing power and the continued efforts to secure upstream materials. As the lead time now exceeds 12 months, customers increasingly seeking capacity commitments stretching beyond 2029. Crucially, some of the second-tier suppliers have begun auctioning off their available capacity via competitive bidding, a clear indicator of a highly favorable spot-pricing environment and expanding margin outlook for substrate makers. (1/2)🧵

来源:@SemiAnalysis_ · x.com