The 10-year US Treasury just hit 4.568%, highest in 10 months.

The 30-year is back above 5%. Inflation is re-accelerating, markets have fully priced out any Fed rate cut this year, and some are now betting on a hike.

Meanwhile, the AI industry is running the largest debt issuance cycle in modern capital markets history. Hyperscaler capex is set to cross $600B this year. Free cash flow for the top five US tech spenders is turning negative for the first time in 35 years. This buildout is funded by bonds.

The problem: the gap between what Big Tech is spending on AI infrastructure (~$400B/year) and what AI is actually generating in revenue (~$100B) is massive.

If yields stay elevated, refinancing is becoming a serious problem, and the whole bet starts compounding against itself. Alphabet raised $32B in bonds in under 24 hours. Oracle's credit default swaps have tripled since September. So watch the bonds closely.