Yuchen Jin 认为多数 neolabs 会失败，这很正常，但他相信还会有更多 AI 突破。他质疑照搬 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 打法的团队：融 $1B 却把 50% 花在 GPU 上，并不能让公司值 $10B。他更看好挑战 scaling laws、Transformer、next-token prediction 范式的逆向者，并担心优秀研究者未必能成为优秀创始人。
People ask: “Are you dunking on neolabs?”
Most neolabs will fail. That’s normal. But I believe more AI breakthroughs are coming.
I’m skeptical of those following the same playbook as OpenAI and Anthropic. Raising $1B and spending 50% on GPUs doesn’t make you a $10B company.
I’m rooting for the contrarians. Challenge scaling laws. Challenge transformers. Challenge how models learn. Challenge the next-token prediction paradigm.
My bigger concern is that brilliant researchers don’t necessarily make great founders. In my experience, researchers often struggle to turn their research into great products / sustainable businesses.
Heard from a neolab friend: “Even if we fail to train the best model, we locked in GPU capacity early. H100/B200/B300 rental prices have since gone up 2–3x. We can just resell the compute and print money.” OK, so that’s the business model.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Yuchen Jin · x.com