The economic model breaks jobs down into bundles of tasks. AI can help someone complete a task faster or better, do the task itself, leave the task untouched, or create new tasks.

Based on how you expect AI to affect tasks by 2030, our scenario explorer models AI’s potential impact on the US economy.

The scenario explorer focuses on three possible scenarios: modest, substantial, and extreme. The economy grows across all three scenarios. But in more transformative scenarios, AI automates more knowledge work, so the challenge is making sure that the gains are shared across society.

Like all economic models, ours simplifies a more complex reality. But by building better scenarios of our possible economic future, we can take steps to make sure everyone benefits from it.