Demis Hassabis 将 AGI 到来时间预测提前一年至 2029 年,并称人类正站在"奇点的山脚下"。他提出的 AGI 基准是"爱因斯坦测试":让知识截止于 1911 年的 AI 独立推导出广义相对论,目前没有任何系统接近通过。业界对 AGI 定义仍无共识,Altman 称 2028 年,Andreessen 称三个月前已实现,Musk 称已在奇点之中,Anthropic 则回避该词。
Demis Hassabis now says AGI could arrive by 2029, a year earlier
than his previous estimate, and told Axios we're standing in the
"foothills of the singularity."
Bold claim. But the field still can't agree on what AGI actually
means. Hassabis defines it one way, Altman another, Anthropic
avoids the term altogether. We're moving up the timeline for
something we haven't even defined.
Hassabis own AGI benchmark is the Einstein Test: train an AI with a
knowledge cutoff at 1911 and see if it independently derives
general relativity (Hassabis at India AI Impact Summit).
No current system comes close to passing
that. Meanwhile Andreessen says AGI arrived three months ago,
Altman says 2028, Musk declared we're already in the
singularity in January, and Anthropic won't even use the term.
The timeline keeps getting shorter tho.
来源:@kimmonismus · x.com