AI 导读
华为到 2030 年能追上 Nvidia 吗？几乎可以肯定不能。 我们分析了华为的芯片路线图和供应链，从 Ascend 950 到其 3D 堆叠押注以及国产 HBM 供应。我们的估算：2026 年华为的 AI 算力产量将不到 Nvidia 的 4%。仅依赖国产 HBM，到 2028 年这一份额可能降至仅 1%。🧵
正文
Will Huawei catch up to Nvidia by 2030? Almost certainly not.
We analyzed Huawei’s chip roadmap and supply chain, from the Ascend 950 to its 3D-stacking bet and domestic HBM supply. Our estimate: Huawei will produce less than 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026. Relying on domestic HBM alone, that share could fall to just 1% by 2028. 🧵
来源：@EpochAIResearch · x.com