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@dexhorthy· @dexhorthy · X·· 2026-08-22AI 评分31
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HumanLayer 的 Dex Horthy 指出,为"模型聪明 2 倍"提前布局虽合理,但时机判断错误会轻易摧毁公司乃至整个品类的信任。他以 AI SRE 为例:该品类当下杠杆极高,却因约 18 个月前大量团队交付失败,导致买家普遍极度怀疑;2025 年鼓吹"让模型按自己方式写代码"的 coding agent 团队同样如此。他认为过度超前与滞后一样容易错过机会,需持续跟进真实能力边界。

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there is something to be said for “skate for where the puck is going” in terms of “talk and prep for when models get 2x smarter”

But also it’s a really easy way to kill trust in your company or entire category if you get the timing wrong.

AI SRE is a category that is very high leverage now, but because so many teams failed to deliver ~18 months ago, all buyers are incredibly skeptical

Same with teams building coding agents that preached the “let the model write code the way it wants, don’t fight it” in 2025 (I caught this bug for a bit myself but it has passed quickly and violently)

It’s just as easy to miss the puck by overshooting vs undershooting - keep your head on a swivel and stay in touch with capabilities of what’s actually possible, or be ready to chuck it all and do something completely different

来源:@dexhorthy · x.com