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#大佬观点

今日 34 条
9月19日周六
9月18日周五
  1. Gary Marcus37

    Gary Marcus:AI 责任与监管并非二选一,科技自由派右翼的虚假二分法

    Gary Marcus 批评科技自由派右翼一边主张 AI 公司应承担损害责任,一边把责任追究当作反对监管的理由,他认为这一推论不成立。他以 2023 年 5 月在美国参议院与参议员 Josh Hawley 的交锋为例,指出现有法律在 AI 出现前制定,版权、大规模虚假信息等领域存在空白,连 Section 230 是否适用都不明确。

  2. Noam Brown51

    OpenAI 的 Noam Brown 在 Dwarkesh 播客中深谈多智能体、Navier-Stokes 与当前数学进展对自动化 AI 研究和递归自我改进的启示。讨论还涵盖如何在启动 RSI 前判断模型是否真正对齐,以及思维链退化、内外部模型差距等话题,并感谢 OpenAI 团队在多智能体方面的工作。

    引用Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp

    New episode with @polynoamial We talk about multi-agent, Navier-Stokes, and what the current explosion of maths progress tells us about what happens once you automate AI research. And we also discuss how we will know if the models are actually aligned before we kick off RSI. 0:00:00 – Multi-agent and Navier-Stokes 0:15:28 – How will AI firms work? 0:22:02 – What math progress tells us about recursive self improvement 0:40:22 – Hugging Face and alignment 1:01:18 – The internal/external model gap 1:08:34 – Chain of thought is degrading 1:14:12 – How will we know when alignment is solved?

9月17日周四
  1. jietang61

    唐杰称,由 GLM-5.3 驱动的基础设施智能体用两周时间让 GLM-5.3-Flash 从首次在国内加速器上运行到承接全部生产流量,端到端吞吐提升 3.2 倍。

    引用Z.ai@Zai_org

    We’re sharing how GLM-5.3 helped build and optimize the inference infrastructure serving GLM-5.3-Flash. The system went from its first successful run to production readiness in less than two weeks, with end-to-end throughput tripling relative to the initial baseline. The key was dense feedback: local correctness tests, execution traces, microbenchmarks, and end-to-end measurements that enabled targeted hypothesis testing rather than reliance on aggregate performance metrics alone. https://z.ai/blog/glm-built-its-inference-infrastructure

  2. elsewhere articles47

    对话深朴智能王家伟:24 岁具身智能首席科学家谈转身具身与大模型边界

    24 岁的深朴智能(Simple AI)首席科学家王家伟在播客中讲述自己从中科大少年班、MSRA、DeepSeek、字节 Seed 转向具身智能的选择。深朴智能已开源 2,000 小时 HiFi-UMI 数据,内部积累数万小时,模型观察到一定 Zero-shot 泛化,并自研 Agentic OS 连接上层意图与底层动作。他认为通用大模型会承担更多理解与规划,但机器人快速反应仍需专门的动作模型。

9月16日周三
9月15日周二
9月14日周一
  1. Gary Marcus40

    Gary Marcus:特朗普与 AI 的命运之约?

    Gary Marcus 在《经济学人》撰文提出,特朗普最重大的总统决策可能是是否与中国就 AI 达成协议,他主张策略重点不在芯片交易,而在 AI 向善的合作。特朗普与习近平 9 月 24 日通话,AI 已列入议程。文中还提到 AI 股票下跌、公众反 AI 情绪升温,以及 Steve Bannon 转而与 Sanders 联手反对。

  2. a16z News67

    Josh Elman 谈产品管理的核心仍是讲故事:AI 时代从写 spec 转向先建原型

    前 LinkedIn、Twitter 产品负责人 Josh Elman 撰文指出,AI 把开发成本降到极低后,产品开发循环从先写 spec 再构建反转为先快速原型再设计,spec 不再是交付物,但判断成本没有下降,决定做什么才是产品经理的整个工作。

    推荐理由:作者结合 LinkedIn 和 Twitter 的一线产品经历,说明 AI 如何把产品开发从写规格文档改为先做原型再做判断,方法论可直接迁移。

  3. Mustafa Suleyman40

    这是一个非常直白且符合常识的观点:技术的目的是服务人类,加速人类繁荣。 任何无法实现这一目标的技术都是失败的,应当被拒绝。 我们还没有到那一步。但开始为这种可能性做准备是正确的。

    引用Satya Nadella@satyanadella

    Any pursuit of superintelligence has to be grounded in the core principle that if the AI we build is not helping humanity and under human control, it's not worth pursuing. We also need to accelerate and spread the benefits of AI, such that they are diffused broadly across countries, communities, and companies. This requires a frontier ecosystem in which both closed and open-source models can thrive. And for firms, it’s imperative that they retain full control over their unique and tacit knowledge. Every organization should be able to build its own continuous learning loop/hill climbing machine, without becoming dependent on any one model provider, and have the ability to embed its own knowledge into models and weights they control. So, in this context, we welcome the research, focus, and deliberate pacing needed to get alignment right as the design goal. We also welcome ideas like "embedded evaluators" and the broader efforts to develop the mechanisms to make this more than just talk. The key is that this cannot be controlled by a handful of entities, but must have broad representation across the ecosystem, countries, and fields, including academia. This is the approach we are taking: broad access and choice at every layer of the AI stack; enterprise control of learning loops and models; and the “Code of Conduct” that underlies our own first party MAI models that we’ll publish tomorrow for public consultation.

9月13日周日
  1. Demis Hassabis62

    Demis Hassabis 发文表示 Dario Amodei 新文《We Must Pace the Frontier》指出了正确的前进方向,细节仍需完善,但方向对应对这一关键时刻是正确的。他还附上自己此前提出的前沿 AI 行业标准机构提案链接;Dario 原文宣布 Anthropic 将为第三方评估者提供永久员工级系统访问权限。

    引用Dario Amodei@DarioAmodei

    We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

  2. Peter McCrory69

    Dario Amodei 发表文章《We Must Pace the Frontier》,主张 AI 行业应放慢速度并给出三部分计划,Anthropic 单方面承诺执行其中第一步。该步骤是向第三方评估者提供永久的员工级系统访问权限,用于核验安全措施落实、报告事故并评估训练中模型的对齐情况。全文见 https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier,作者 McCrory 认为嵌入式评估者是合理的第一步。

    引用Dario Amodei@DarioAmodei

    We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

    推荐理由:Anthropic 首席经济学家推荐 Dario Amodei 新文,提出给第三方评估者永久员工级访问权以核验安全措施,可了解行业自律的具体动作。

  3. Aidan Gomez47

    卡特尔这边有些“好主意”: - 你们得给我们员工级别的权限,访问你们整个运营体系 - 如果我们觉得你们不够“安全”,抱歉,为了“安全”我们得把你们关停 - 中国不会遵守,但其他所有人都得遵守!不然就没芯片! 真是绝了。

    引用Sam Altman@sama

    I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier. This has been a primary topic of discussions we've had at OpenAI in recent weeks. Committing to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same. We'll have more to share soon.

9月12日周六
  1. Peter McCrory46

    这是该模型的一个重要局限。我们聚焦于 AI 转型的供给侧(AI 能做什么、扩散多快、劳动者转岗多快)。 价格是灵活的,总需求等于经济体的产出能力。 更多思考见 🧵

    引用modest proposal@modestproposal1

    Anthropic's economic scenario analysis is interesting. But this is not something you can ignore, this is the most important consideration! "the model cannot generate the negative feedback in which disruption depresses demand and amplifies its own labor-market consequences"

  2. Dwarkesh Patel56

    Dwarkesh 对谈 John Schulman、Beren Millidge 与 Charlie O'Neill:递归自我改进还有多远

    Dwarkesh Patel 与 Zyphra CTO Beren Millidge、Thinking Machines 首席科学家 John Schulman、Baseten 模型训练负责人 Charlie O'Neill 长篇对谈,逐段讨论递归自我改进(RSI)最可能失败的技术原因、中国实验室的追赶路径、自动化 AI 研究者的训练方式以及长时程 RL 能否带来 AGI。

9月11日周五
9月10日周四
  1. jietang24

    你确定吗?找到最优模型规模很棘手:数据量、激活参数量、环境数量,以及目标推理成本。模型性能还取决于许多其他因素,每个因素都会带来自身的变数。

    引用Charlie O'Neill@oneill_c

    Fable is probably ~2-2.5T parameters, not 10T. Kimi K3 is 2.8T params, trained on maybe 20–30k Blackwell-equivalents. It lands within spitting distance of Fable 5 in terms of capabilities (5, not 5.1). Anthropic has far more compute than Moonshot, better rl environments, better architecture and better optimizers and all of that adds to capability per parameter. So if Fable is only slightly ahead of K3 with this in mind, it's almost certainly a smaller model. GPT-5.5 and 5.6 are smaller still (I'll say more on that later)

9月9日周三
9月8日周二
9月4日周五
9月3日周四
  1. elsewhere articles46

    对卷卷的3小时访谈:从抖音到AI 3D、成为制造业OS的野心、基础模型不会吞噬一切

    数美万物创始人兼CEO任利锋(卷卷)在近3小时访谈中回顾了从0到1孵化抖音的经历,并介绍了公司最新发布的Hi3D 3.0 2048³模型。他将公司目标从Maker OS推向制造业OS,认为基础模型不会吞噬一切,实体制造仍需能产出生产级3D资产的模型,难点在于拆件、连接结构、材料设备适配与按时交付。

9月2日周三
9月1日周二