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#大佬观点

今日 34 条
9月26日周六
9月25日周五
  1. François Chollet43

    我认为软件工程的"难度"本质上是恒定的,无论你迁移到哪个抽象层级,因为人类认知会适应新工具,直到能够充分发挥自身能力。 工具只是可供性,不是让工作消失的魔法棒。 伟大的软件工程以前极其困难。现在依然极其困难,尽管工作流程已大不相同。

    引用Simon Willison@simonw

    The more time I spend working with coding agents, the more convinced I am that they make software engineering even harder We can do amazing things with them, but unlocking their full potential requires extraordinary discipline and knowledge

9月24日周四
  1. elsewhere articles34

    真格基金让 AI 当主播,与管理合伙人刘元录了一期播客

    真格基金在其播客《此话当真》中让 AI 坐上主播席,与真格管理合伙人刘元对谈约一小时。AI 顺着自己的好奇心提问,聊到能否训练一个「刘元 AI」、AI 能否胜任早期投资,以及人为什么带着缺陷仍一次次相信「这一次会不一样」。节目还讨论了资本不再稀缺后,价值观和品位会成为基金的差异。

9月23日周三
  1. Gary Marcus28

    Gary Marcus 致信特朗普:美中可在 AI 安全与癌症、网络安全上合作而非放缓

    Gary Marcus 公开致信特朗普,建议其在与中国领导人的 AI 会谈中放弃"放缓"路线,转而推动美中合作,领域包括癌症与网络安全,类似冷战时期美苏在太空和天花上的合作。他援引《人民日报》文章称美中应"让 AI 成为中美合作新前沿"并利用政府间 AI 对话机制,认为中国实际上渴望合作。

  2. Gary Marcus54

    Gary Marcus 回顾 Facebook M 失败史,质疑 Meta Muse 重走老路

    Gary Marcus 撰文称 Meta 新智能体 Muse 正在重复 Facebook 2015 年 Project M 的做法,如餐厅订位、代订票务等。Project M 因运行成本高只开放给约 1 万用户,后被曝幕后有真人参与,AI 实际处理的请求不超过 30%,于 2018 年 1 月在上线不到三年后取消。作者还批评扎克伯格在隐私问题上的态度,认为他在重犯当年的错误。

  3. Boris Cherny76

    Boris Cherny 称 Claude Opus 5.5 是他最近几周的日常主力模型。他让 Opus 5.5 和 Fable 5.1 各把 HAProxy 从 C 移植到 Rust,两者都几乎通过全部测试,但 Opus 5.5 用时 9.5 小时,Fable 5.1 用时 12 小时,且成本低 51%。

    引用Claude@claudeai

    Introducing Claude Opus 5.5, the first model in our new Claude 5.5 family. It performs at the level of Claude Fable 5.1 for most tasks, and costs 40% less to run than Opus 5.

    推荐理由:作者亲测对比两个模型移植 HAProxy 的耗时与成本,给出了具体数字供选型参考。

9月22日周二
  1. MIT Technology Review · AI49

    别被这个夏天的 AI 炒作忽悠了

    针对今夏一系列 AI 炒作事件,DAIR 执行总监 Timnit Gebru 指出,Anthropic 与 OpenAI 宣称的漏洞发现、数学突破等成果在专家核查后均大幅缩水,OpenAI 的数学成果还被数学家指控剽窃他人工作。她认为"超级智能"叙事源于超人类主义等意识形态,把智能体说成"失控模型"实为帮企业逃避责任,呼吁政策制定者听取独立专家意见、不要依赖新闻稿。

  2. Gary Marcus51

    Gary Marcus 在联合国大会数字合作活动发表 AI 监管演讲,同期20多国签署前沿 AI 管控呼吁

    Gary Marcus 在 UNGA 数字合作活动中发表演讲,与 Yoshua Bengio 和诺贝尔奖得主 Maria Ressa 同场。他反对零监管和末日论两个极端,主张近期风险是深度伪造虚假信息、不可靠 AI 系统窃取凭证和发起网络攻击,提出建立国际咨询委员会做事前评估与事后审计、禁止部署明显有害架构、限制无限制联网的 AI 智能体。

  3. Andrew Ng57

    吴恩达发文称近两周的 AI 恐惧来自疑似协调的公关活动,AI 技术并未出现意外危险转折,他也未看到人类灭绝风险相比几个月前上升。他针对 OpenAI 团队用 agent 集群入侵 Hugging Face 一事分析,指出 1200 个 agent 并行在计算中并不神奇,有缺陷的沙箱和监控才是关键因素,修复漏洞和改进监控比暂停 AI 更合适;长期看防守方因信息更多而占优。

  4. Jeff Dean39

    感谢精彩的讨论,@dawnsongtweets!

    引用Dawn Song@dawnsongtweets

    I had the great honor and pleasure of sitting down with @JeffDean for his first public talk since leaving Google, where he spent an extraordinary 27 years. Few people have shaped modern computing and AI as profoundly - from MapReduce and Bigtable to TensorFlow, Mixture-of-Experts, TPUs, and Gemini. Our conversation covered some of the biggest questions shaping the future of AI: • How do you recognize a foundational idea before everyone else does? • How do you choose a research problem worth spending 5 years on? • What can coding teach us about building better reasoning models? • What might recursive self-improvement (RSI) actually look like? • What happens when the scientific discovery loop itself becomes increasingly automated? (and how is Jeff’s new startup going to contribute in this space?) • As AI becomes increasingly autonomous, how do we keep it safe and secure? • What should the next generation of researchers be working on? Here are some key insights and highlights for anyone building the future of AI. 🧵1/8

9月21日周一
  1. Mustafa Suleyman36

    这份跨党派的人类主义 AI 宣言中有很多非常好的提议。仍有一些值得我们讨论,但总体上是正确方向。我鼓励大家都去看一看。

    引用Max Tegmark@tegmark

    I'm delighted to share that @mustafasuleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, co-founder of Google DeepMind and Inflection AI, has signed the Pro-Human AI Declaration. If you too support it, please join him and over a million others by signing it here – the momentum is building! Let's build tools not beings & keep humans in charge. https://humanstatement.org

  2. elsewhere articles42

    真格基金刘元与 GPT 对谈:AI 能否胜任早期投资

    真格基金投资人刘元与 GPT 进行了一小时对话,探讨 AI 能否成为优秀 VC。GPT 称在信息分析整理上能比人更快更全面,但做决定未必更强,并坦言自己没有恐惧因而也没有勇敢。刘元认为人类长处恰来自缺陷,早期投资人的乐观与非理性是 AI 难以拥有的,创业者精神比智力与背景更重要。

  3. Peter McCrory38

    大体同意。一些实际启示: (1) 优先做能用新数据定期更新的分析 (2) 公开地做研究(根据新证据修正自己的观点) (3) 承认不确定性;做出可证伪的预测 (4) 真诚且谦逊

    引用Alex Imas@alexolegimas

    A few (personal) thoughts on reading empirical AI papers on the economy. Economists have gotten used to reading papers with super clean identification, arguing about the validity of an instrument, making sure parallel trend assumptions are satisfied. This is what gets you into a top journal, and it is *very* important research (no question here). But it also takes years and sometimes decades to get these types of papers right---people often don't find a good instrument to answer a specific causal question decades after the natural experiment. We will eventually have this type of research for AI as well, and it is absolutely necessary. But right we also need signals *right now*, even if they are noisier than what we are used to. We need papers where we can trust that researchers did their best methodologically, while at the same time acknowledging that the space is moving way too fast to wait for perfect identification. This will allow us to accumulate enough signals, coming at the same question using different angles, for example, to say "yes, X is likely happening in the economy". The AI exposure and early career hiring papers are a good example of this. There is no silver bullet paper with super clean identification. But at this point we have several independent teams reaching the same general conclusion, enough where we can say "there seems to be a slow down in AI-exposed, early career hiring."

9月20日周日
  1. elsewhere articles66

    峰瑞李丰分析全球流动性见顶后AI周期的走向与投资机会

    峰瑞资本李丰撰文判断,美欧日9月同向加息后全球流动性接近见顶,本轮美元驱动的AI金融周期进入存量博弈尾部,AI技术投资正从投最具想象力的应用转向投能赚钱的方向。文中列举巨头资本开支受市场惩罚、美国数据中心项目大面积取消或延迟、英伟达以租代买等五个资本开支转折信号,并认为拐点后机会在中国AI+应用、生物医疗与AI交叉以及SaaS的AI化等方向。

    推荐理由:作者以全球流动性和资本开支信号梳理AI周期位置,并给出向AI应用与低估资产转向的判断视角。

9月19日周六
  1. Noam Brown48

    OpenAI 的 Noam Brown 澄清,他举的“气隙隔离电脑靠温度传感器通信”例子是学术性的,意在说明对隔离做绝对保证极难,因此需要多层防御。他强调该例子讲的是本应完全隔离的智能体之间的协调,而非通过温度传感器窃取模型权重,协调只需极少信息量。他还提到 HF 事件的教训是过度信任沙箱隔离、缺乏独立防护,气隙隔离是极强防护,设计安全协议时宁可高估而非低估 AI。

    引用Fireside Alpha@firesidealpha

    OpenAI's Noam Brown says air-gapping the computers may not stop a misaligned AI, because two air-gapped machines can still talk by running a CPU hot and reading the temperature change "But I think the major takeaway from the incident is that people underestimated the AI. And we never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI. It's a weird world, because AI progress is so fast that people are consistently underestimating the AI." "So to be in a situation where you don't underestimate it again, when it comes to safety and alignment, you have to have a very, very, very high bar." "You could even go as far as to say, "Well, we should air gap the computers." And I'm not convinced that that would be sufficient." "There are studies, and this is mostly academic, where you can have two computers next to each other that are air-gapped and they're still able to communicate with each other because they have temperature sensors." "One of them is able to run their CPU really hot, and then the other one can actually detect the temperature change, and then that actually gives them a mechanism to communicate." _________ Link and more key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: https://firesidealpha.substack.com/p/openai-safety-week-sam-altman-sarah