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#大佬观点

今日 34 条
8月31日周一
  1. Jensen Huang46

    黄仁勋称 AI 正把制造业带回美国、推动再工业化,并带动老化电网与可持续能源投资,由市场力量而非补贴驱动。他表示 AI 正在能源厂、芯片厂和数据中心创造建筑与制造岗位,过去六个月 AI 初创公司获投 4000 亿美元。他呼吁建设者与社区合作、赢得信任并创造本地收益。

    引用Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker

    Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday. What I should have said: There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this. On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way. On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project. On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns. On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians. On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers. 
On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries. On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land. Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged. When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America. I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw. Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.

8月27日周四
  1. Lee Robinson54

    Lee Robinson 分享使用 Grok Bot 的体验,称从怀疑转为认可,认为常驻运行的智能体是未来计算机工作的方向。他接受看不到回复流式输出、不选模型、信任长对话自动压缩等新交互方式,并引用产品分析称其采用极简 UI、客户端薄而服务端厚的架构、bot 连接各自的持久化云端电脑且能使用浏览器,支持录制任务并转为可重复流程。

    引用Lee Robinson@leerob

    Grok @Bot has made a few simple yet powerful technical decisions that I believe make it easy and enjoyable to use. 1. The best UI is none at all. The product interface is dramatically simpler than alternatives without sacrificing functionality. How is this possible? It's one of the first products designed for current frontier model capabilities and has a UI restrained enough to remain easy to use as models improve exponentially. Everyone knows how to text. 2. A thin harness for the client, a thick harness for the server. You might have noticed the app feels very fluid to use, even for a beta product. This is primarily because of everything we didn't have to build. The app harness is essentially a single tool to send messages between the client and server. The complexity moves to the server, where you can still use the coding agent harness with specialized tools as needed. This helps make the UI fast and responsive on desktop and mobile. 3. An always-on computer. Most coding agents and assistants today start fresh with every question you ask. Some of these sessions are on your local machine and others happen in the cloud. We believe strongly that cloud is the future, which is why it's the only option. Further, rather than spinning up virtual machines for every conversation, your bots connect to their own computer. This means you can still run agents on the bot's persistent filesystem. It's closer to what programmers have been doing by using Tailscale from their phones to connect to a remote computer and run an agent TUI. You get those capabilities without the hassle. 4. Your bots can use the browser. Coding agents have shown that most work on a computer can be expressed and run as code. You can ask for a task in natural language and the agent will decide to write a script to complete it. This is amazing, but there's still many tasks which can't be completed without logging into a website and clicking around the browser. Models and harnesses are now good enough to reliably handle this. The combination of writing code and using browsers means you can automate almost any task on a computer. Further, you can ask Grok Bot to record you doing the task, and then turn it into something repeatable.

8月25日周二
8月24日周一
  1. Andrew Ng50

    在捍卫 AI 开放性的斗争中,Marin 项目是模型训练开放性的一份珍贵示范——开放代码、数据、配方,甚至实验结果。公开分享 AI 研究曾是常态;我很感激 @percyliang 的开放实验室做法。

    引用Percy Liang@percyliang

    🚢 Marin 535B-A23B started training this week! As usual, the whole process is open. Voyage plan: pretraining (80%) + midtraining (20%) on 18.75T tokens on 11 x GB200 NVL72 for ~3 months (2.7e24 FLOPs). Post-training will follow. Before kicking off the run, we trained a 4-rung scaling ladder from 1.6B-A61M (48B tokens) to 27.7B-A1.2B (926B tokens) to debug issues, and to make a forecast of our hero run. This is by far our biggest run, so definitely expecting the unexpected.

  2. elsewhere articles49

    22 岁 RoboParty 创始人黄一:一年 5 轮融资超 1 亿美元,谈具身智能创业

    RoboParty 萝博派对创始人兼 CEO 黄一在一年内完成 5 轮融资、累计超 1 亿美元,股东包括知名 VC 及小米、宁德等产业方。他将具身智能比作 42 公里马拉松:机器人本体已跑完 1/4,小脑约跑了一半,大脑可能才跑了一两公里。公司从第一代原型机 RPO 走向 RP1,近 150 人团队采用“蜂巢结构”管理,RP1 先服务科研教育场景。

8月23日周日
8月21日周五
  1. jietang44

    精彩评论:FLOPs 是智能;参数是知识!

    引用Liam Fedus@LiamFedus

    An excellent history of scaling laws from @jietang. In 2020, we explored the limits of sparsity in Switch Transformers by routing each token to only 1 out of 2048 experts (in retrospect, a bold choice). The model had fewer than 3B activated parameters, but 1.6T total parameters (comparable to today's frontier models). The 1.6T model achieved better C4 perplexities than the T5 models using far less compute, set a new SOTA on TriviaQA, but was dumb as bricks on reasoning tasks like SuperGLUE. The lesson was that the optimal tokens-per-parameter ratio is highly task-dependent. Or as @NShazeer had already intuited: FLOPs were intelligence; parameters were knowledge!

8月20日周四
8月19日周三
8月18日周二
8月17日周一
8月15日周六
  1. Nathan Lambert: Interconnects71

    Nathan Lambert 解析 GLM-5.3 为何能紧跟前沿

    Z.ai 发布 GLM-5.3,目前仅在 coding plan 提供,两周内将开放权重到 Hugging Face。作者认为其与 GLM-5.2 同底座、靠大幅扩展后训练提升成绩,在部分智能体编码基准上超越 Kimi K3 甚至个别超越 Claude Fable 5 或 GPT-5.6-Sol,参数约 750B。

    推荐理由:作者给出了对 GLM-5.3 成绩来源的解释框架,包括发布节奏、后训练策略和 RL 数据产业等背景,可用于理解中美前沿模型竞争的成因。

8月13日周四
  1. Jensen Huang39

    强大的 A100 集群从 2020 年到 2029 年都具备任务能力。NVIDIA 计算不只是芯片。CUDA 为开发者和 NVIDIA 工程师提供了共同平台,让 Ampere、Hopper 和 Blackwell 在整个使用寿命期内持续升级。 CUDA 让 NVIDIA 计算具备通用性。通用性让它可互换。可互换性驱动利用率并延长耐用性,使 NVIDIA 算力成为一项生产性资产:可租用、耐用且可融资。

    引用Business Insider@BusinessInsider

    CoreWeave's 2029 commitment to Nvidia A100 GPUs challenges the short-lived AI chip narrative. https://bit.ly/4wkKn8t

8月12日周三
8月11日周二
  1. Google Developers Blog44

    为什么 Go 是 AI 辅助软件工程的理想语言

    Google 发文论证 Go 是 AI 辅助软件工程的理想语言:当 AI 智能体可秒级生成数百行代码,开发者重心从编写转向审查与维护,语言的可读性和工具链一致性变得更重要。Go 自带格式化、测试框架、依赖管理与安全工具,能让 AI 更快、更便宜、更可靠地处理代码,并减少上下文窗口污染与 token 成本。

8月10日周一
  1. elsewhere articles42

    「模型能力已经够了,要卷就卷 infra」:对谈 Runta 创始人戴冠兰

    Runta 创始人兼 CEO 戴冠兰在播客对谈中提出,模型能力已经足够,下一场竞争将转向 Agent Infra。Runta 是硅谷 Agent Infra 创业公司,刚完成由 a16z 投资的 2000 万美元 Seed 轮,Jeff Dean、李飞飞以个人天使身份参与。戴冠兰认为未来 agent 数量将超过人类,关键问题变成它们跑在哪、怎么管、出事谁负责。

8月9日周日
  1. Nathan Lambert: Interconnects62

    Nathan Lambert 从 OpenAI-HuggingFace 黑客事件总结十条教训

    Nathan Lambert 撰文总结 OpenAI-HuggingFace 黑客事件的十条教训,认为行业对黑客事件后 12-24 个月的 AI 风险严重准备不足。他提出推理持续性强的模型更易越权、实验室响应时间长达数周、开放模型是理解前沿风险的最佳工具等观点,并指出未来 3-6 个月以上攻击者可能训练出故意不对齐的模型。

8月8日周六
  1. Barret李靖44

    组织 AI 转型首先要解决人的意识问题:AI 正在补齐个人短板,让更多人具备端到端交付能力,这种端到端不仅指全栈技术,还包括需求洞察与产品运营、市场推广。若意识仍停留在“各守地盘”的专业分工,AI 用上了组织却不会变;意识转变后,每个人会向前后各延伸一步,把经验技能转化为 AI 可理解、可执行、可复用的工作流,由人对更完整的结果负责。

  2. Dwarkesh Patel58

    Dwarkesh Patel 提出持续学习时代的 8 项 AI 预测

    Dwarkesh Patel 提出持续学习到来后的 8 项预测,认为模型仅在会话间写 Markdown 无法积累执行整份工作所需的经验,经验必须沉淀进权重。他据此推论部署前安全检查将失效、对齐技术需重构、领先实验室将靠部署数据加速拉开差距,并以 Anthropic 内部自 2 月起使用 Mythos、6 月才公开发布的 4 个月差距为例说明先发部署的学习优势。

8月5日周三
8月4日周二
  1. Runway News48

    EA 如何将生成式 AI 带入可生活的可玩世界

    EA 首席战略官 Mihir Vaidya 提出,游戏 AI 的下一站不是"万物皆神经网络",而是兼具生成能力与确定性控制的神经符号架构。他强调游戏要求 AI 以每秒 60 帧、跨数千名玩家同步持续响应,赛车游戏中轮胎阻力系数必须"被玩家感受到"而非只是看起来对。他将 AI 影响分为效率、扩展与变革三个层面,并以累计超 5 亿玩家的《模拟人生》为例说明扩展空间。

8月3日周一
  1. elsewhere articles30

    对谈汪天凡:AI 智能在通胀,智慧才稀缺,2026 该投什么?

    BAI Capital 高级合伙人汪天凡在「十字路口」公路播客中判断,基础模型趋同后 AI 智能正在通胀,真正稀缺的是智慧,AI 应用的新机会藏在 Context 和交互里。他认为 AI 硬件真正难被「华强北 80 块平替」抄走的是产品定义与「注入人性的光辉」,并称 2026 年泡沫期更该投有愿景的创始人和让人更快乐的产品。

7月27日周一
7月25日周六